Bulgaria 1-1 Ireland. Ireland 0-1 Finland. Not quite the brave new start we had hoped for.
It has to be said, the cold facts make for grim reading. 1 goal scored. From a header. At a set-piece. From our centre half. The only goal scored in two games during the greatest tactical revolution Irish football has seen since Big Jack came once again from the man who still remains our primary defensive leader and primary attacking dangerman.
Lukas Hradecky will scarcely have had easier days at the office than he did yesterday. At the other end this week, Bozhidar Kraev and Fredrik Jensen will echo similar sentiments. A simple ball through the middle between the two centre halves made Kraev’s job a simple one, and Jensen barely had to flick a leg when coming on before he made the decisive intervention in yesterday’s game. Toothless in attack, shapeless in defence. That doesn’t tell the whole story, of course, but then again, when did the whole story ever get in the way of a good story?
Ireland is a country where very few things are left politically uncontested if we can help it. We can dislike each other based on religious and political differences – even if many of us aren’t even precisely sure what those differences are – and even the terms ‘Ireland’ and the FIFA definition of ‘Republic of Ireland’ are contested in so far as they can mean very different things depending on who you talk to, in any part of the country. We simply don’t tend to agree with or trust each other very often on the things that matter most to us, and an Irish popular discussion can very often take the form of two polarised sides with competing agendas trying to shout the loudest.
Enter Stephen Kenny. It is actually somewhat ironic that Kenny has become caught up in becoming one of the most polarising Irish managers in recent times, given that he is very affable with a mild temperament, and ‘Ireland manager’ has become one of the few uncontroversial prominent posts in the country recently, such is the apathy towards the Irish senior team both due to their results and the bloated, disorganised feel to international football since the halcyon days of Paris, Bordeaux, Lille and Lyon in 2016 (though we ourselves benefitted from that competition being expanded from 16 teams to 24). A nice man has been dropped into the Ireland job when Ireland haven’t kicked a ball in anger in nearly a year – and all of a sudden everyone is angry again.
The problem with Stephen Kenny and why he divides opinion has nothing to do with Kenny himself – mostly. To many, his record is light, and he is the 20-0 heavyweight boxer getting a shot at the title whose record is full of wins at nondescript casinos against names you can hardly pronounce, much less recognise. Success in the League of Ireland, no matter that he took a team in trouble and turned them into among the greatest teams the league has ever seen, will never be enough to some – a relegation from the SPL with Dunfermline will not have helped. Similarly, his success with the U21 team could be seen as easier due to the decreased proportion of pressure – sometimes he could rely on Aaron Connolly as he did twice this week, sometimes the senior team needed him, and from this alone the level of importance of each team is apparent.
It really doesn’t require much of an analysis to explain why this approach to judging Kenny is, at best, a wildly unreliable one. If Ireland hired a manager whose last three posts were a sacking at Adanaspor, a liquidation at Tirol Innsbruck and a brief time in charge at Austria Wien, there would be uproar – Eamon Dunphy has savaged much more decorated suitors for the job as a light snack before a Champions League group stage game before. However, I am sure the dark days of Adanaspor were quite far from Joachim Low’s mind when he lifted the Jules Rimet Trophy in the Maracana stadium in 2014.
A more pointed comparison is that one of the most decorated managers of all time, with six Scudetto titles, a European Cup, two UEFA Cups and a UEFA Cup Winner’s Cup could not get the Republic of Ireland to perform as well at Euro 2012 as Northern Ireland in Euro 2016, with a significantly less talented player pool under a man whose previous biggest achievement was reaching the group stage of the Europa League with Shamrock Rovers. Northern Ireland lost to a Wales team on an historic run in that Euros, and Chris Coleman’s reward for bringing Wales to the semi-final of Euro 2016 was to be a punchline as foil for the magnificent Martin Bain on Series 1 of Sunderland ‘Til I Die – sending them down to League One. In short, all this is to say that we should be careful not to overestimate the correlation between club football and likelihood of success in an international role. Kenny’s record at club level will never be enough to some – we should just be thankful they are not making the decisions for the Ireland team.
There are many who do not have a problem with Kenny’s record but rather feel that Mick McCarthy was unfairly forced out. Again, this does not require too much consideration or discussion. In the spirit of Stephen Kenny, let’s bring it back to the League of Ireland to answer this one. Dundalk, Shamrock Rovers, Bohemians and Derry City were, for a period, invited to consider donating some of their own earned money in order to fund the return of the domestic league. In this context and backdrop, if anyone had 1.5 million Euros lying spare for Mick to sit and prepare for the Slovakia game for another year, it would’ve been more prudent for them to speak up at the time.
If we accept that Kenny is here, he is here validly and he should be given every chance to fairly show what he can do, the results so far have been mixed, which is probably a kind way to put it. The half-joke has been the same from the second he was announced, as a sarcastic, eye-rolling refrain from his detractors and a quiet, unrealistic dream from his supporters – ‘we might end up playing like Barcelona, lads’. We are attempting it, but so far it’s all looked a bit more “I see yer da is taking the divorce well” than a genuine new-look, new and improved Ireland. Ireland are different under Kenny. Very different. That much is not in doubt by anyone. We have been better over these two games in some areas, and worse in others.
Let’s start with this – this is an embryonic team for Kenny. This time last week, he was meeting many of his players in person for the very first time. We are trying to unlearn a system that has been established as the way to play football in this country for decades, ever since Liam Tuohy found his U19 half time team-talk interrupted by an irate Jack Charlton coming to ask the players why the ball wasn’t being sent long in February 1986. Kenny has only had a week to change 34 years of this. Martin O’Neill, as talented a motivator as he was, did not coach corners. It showed. Mick McCarthy presumably needs extra storage space for all of the hands he’s bitten off for a draw in the past two years, not to mention the ones he’s said he would have bitten off if given the chance. Pragmatism and making the most of our limited side has been the norm for all of our lifetimes. Now, we are chasing idealism. Now, we are chasing the idea that we could be something more than accepting a draw against every semi-decent team we face.
It will all come down to the players we have, or it will come to nothing as we don’t have the players. Player buy-in will not be a concern. Much has been made of the dressing room that did not take to the last LOI manager to succeed Mick McCarthy, but Brian Kerr walked into a much more illustrious dressing-room after a much more controversial sacking with a much more self-confident team. It is as simple as the last three Ireland managers have spoken about limitations. Kenny speaks about possibilities. Any player that fancies himself as a decent player would rather hear what Kenny has to say, and will respond better to being challenged to express themselves than being told to hide their limitations at all costs.
Player quality then, will be everything under Kenny, and this is where the concern lies. We may be in a pandemic pre-season and many players may be struggling for fitness, but the results nevertheless are concerning in defence and attack so far. Attack has been reduced to frustration, occasional glimpses of quality but more almost-chances and half chances than any actual incisiveness so far. This is a slightly lesser concern, because quite simply, we are still going to get set pieces and none of our lads have shrunk between November 2019 and now. We have not created a great deal from open play in a long time. Progress in this area is a criterion that Kenny will ultimately be judged on, but the cost of playing a different game is not yet felt as keenly in what was already a profligate attack.
Defence is an area where Kenny will have less time, and less forgiveness. Shane Duffy, despite remaining our attacking dangerman, looks lost in defence when he was previously a reassuring and towering figure. In the two games, he hasn’t been quite sure of where to be, never quite sure how far to take the ball, and always a little bit slower to take up a good defensive position, which has cost us already. Enda Stevens and Matt Doherty have taken to their roles as modern full-backs with inconsistent results. Many of the midfield have given decent performances but have lapsed in concentration at crucial times – Finland’s goal came from an unforced error, and Bulgaria’s came from a simple pass through the middle.
The lack of a dedicated number 6 or a ‘sitter’ in what looks a dynamic, shuttling and younger midfield trio seems to be giving the defence the jitters, and gives Glenn Whelan shaped rockets for people in the media to fire at the management (No, we are not going there. He is 38 and plays for Fleetwood Town). Josh Cullen could be a solution in this role in the longer term, but it is a short-term problem that must be fixed. On the midfield more generally, the passing has notably improved. Ireland have doubled their passes and greatly upped their accuracy on these, but at times it has looked a bit like the ‘sterile domination’ of the bad days of United under Van Gaal – keep the ball in the middle third while the more cohesive, less possession-obsessed opposition coils like a spring waiting to punish. Confidence to play a pass and show for a pass rather than going long has been instilled. Confidence to play a killer pass is next, but that is much more of a question of ability.
A very good point was discussed during the Finland game on Sky – which is the effect of closed doors on Ireland. It is difficult to imagine an Ireland team having the confidence or temperament to play ‘nice’ but error-strewn experimental football in front of a packed Aviva – as much for the adrenaline that this may bring as any crowd criticism. When the crowds return, we will see a true test of Kenny’s system and the ability of the players to execute under pressure in Dublin and on the continent.
Kenny’s team has shown plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Ireland can with some justification claim to have been the ‘better team’ generally against both Bulgaria and Finland. Paradoxically, many who believe we ‘don’t have the players’ would have Kenny judged by the barometer of instantly becoming a ready-made world class international team. We are clearly far from there. We do not have any right to beat a Finland side that will not need any playoff to be a team that could await us in the Euros, if the Slovakia game and a potential final go to plan. We may not regard Bulgaria as up to much, but they would be well within their rights to say the same about us. We’ve written off better sides than both ourselves and them in recent memory as eminently beatable. We generally had the better of the play in both games, particularly in Sofia. Conceding chances is a major concern, but creating some with good play, albeit not yet at the frequency we would like, has been a positive. The fine margins have gone against Ireland in both games, but we are trying to play a pleasing, technical, continental European style of passing football, and have controlled play against established European sides doing so. Aaron Connolly could have been responsible for three goals alone over two evenings, and we would be discussing a different story. But he wasn’t and we aren’t.
Such fine margins will define any manager’s tenure of a country with our footballing pedigree. The problem with Kenny managing Ireland is that we are – in some ways – more demanding than the big nations. England, Germany, Brazil or Argentina could pick their Stephen Kennys to manage their national team and afford a few stutters while qualifying anyway (Eddie Howe anyone?) Being a big nation with world class players insulates you, the same way it doesn’t matter how badly run Barcelona, Manchester United or AC Milan are, they will never drop below a certain level. Ireland need time to implement what Kenny wants, but they also need to ‘win now’, in Bratislava next month. If Ireland do not create enough and lose to the Slovaks, the scepticism around Stephen Kenny may turn into open calls for his head. He is going to have to try to get instant results while progressing his long term strategy.
It looks like the debate may rage on for a while yet.
Adjudged Offside 